TEAM CAMERON ODDS ON TO WIN ELECTION RACE

April 9th, 2010 by Frank McKenna

And they’re off! As we get set for the start of the big race in Liverpool tomorrow, Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg are busy trying to get you to back them.

Not since 1992 has the outcome of the General Election been so unpredictable. All the polls are suggesting a close run race, with most commentators saying it will be a photo finish, and a few reckoning that Team Cameron will win by a nose.

After thirteen years in power, Labour are definitely carrying a weighty handicap, and its jockey, Gordon Brown, is not the nimblest of riders that they may have wished for going into the big race. However, he and his party will be pushing experience as the big issue of the day, and hoping that this takes them over the finish line ahead of the other runners and riders.

The Tories message is clearly ‘change’. But in the midst of difficult economic times, will the electorate bet on a novice, or will they see it as too big a gamble to take?

Without a doubt, Nick Clegg, and his Liberal Democrats, is the outsider with long odds being offered for outright victory. Nevertheless, if it is as close a contest as many bookies are indicating, then he may be at the head of any stewards’ inquiry that takes place when all the votes have been counted by May 7th.

For my money, this one is still there for the Conservatives’ taking. Cameron will never have a better chance of becoming Prime Minister, and I’m betting on a Tory majority of between 20-30 seats. Still, it’s all to play for, and, as with the Grand National, there are plenty of hurdles to overcome between now and the end of a contest that is a marathon rather than a sprint.

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IS CAMERON KEEGAN IN DISGUISE?

March 5th, 2010 by Frank McKenna

Regular readers of this blog will be aware that for some considerable time I have been predicting a comfortable victory for the Conservative Party at the next General Election. Not a landslide, as some polling evidence has suggested in recent times, but a win with a decent majority of between 30-40 seats.

This week I spent Wednesday in Westminster, meeting and bumping into a number of MP’s, Ministers and Lords. I arrived just as Prime Ministers Questions had finished, and by all accounts Gordon Brown had won the day. The Conservative members looked a bit glum.

In the country, it may not matter much who wins the weekly knock about between the party Leaders, but to the ‘troops’ it matters – a lot.

Despite Brown taking a bit of a media pounding this week, particularly on the issue of bullying, about which more later, his persona has seemingly improved significantly. He looks and sounds confident, and from the beaten man of 2009 he appears to have transformed into a confident politician who has a chance.

By contrast, Team Cameron appears to be going through a bit of a wobble, and just at the wrong time. It’s a bit like Newcastle United in the Premiership under Kevin Keegan. Runaway leaders until the business end of the season, he and his team lost the plot, having a go at that big bully Ferguson in the process.

The safe and sane money is still on a Tory win in a few weeks time. But even the most ardent of Conservative supporters will know that, rather unexpectedly, they have got a fight on their hands.

On the subject of bullying, I have to say, what a load of tosh. As the Editor of Insider Magazine, Michael Taylor, commented to me at a dinner in Manchester on Tuesday, have people not watched ‘The Thick of It’ on TV. If you haven’t, by the way, you should.

Westminster is not a place for feint hearts. Politics is a rough and tough profession, and you should know that when you sign up for a career in it. The Westminster village and, I imagine number ten, are the most unforgiving of working environments. I found the opposition party’s response to the ‘Brown is a Bully’ allegations rather hypocritical, and that seems to be the mood among those who I have spoken to. And as for the woman from the charity…what a Pratt!

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